August 31, 2023
Why there would have been no war in Ukraine without China, and how it will end
Xi Jinping and Putin (Photo:Sputnik/Sergei Karpukhin/Pool via REUTERS)
The war in Ukraine did not begin in 2022 or even in 2014. It started in 2013, the year of Xi Jinping's first visit to Russia. It was then that the "Greater Eurasian Partnership" project was officially launched, which envisaged the creation of a union of states more powerful than all the existing ones. The goal of the VEP was to create a single economic space covering the countries of Eurasia from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. That is: Western and Eastern European countries, the former Soviet states, and Southeast Asia.
Unlike Western countries, the Chinese live by 50-year strategies. And even if this project seemed absurd at its inception and was ignored, it has made great progress today. Russia and China are already implementing a number of joint projects within the framework of the SREB. These include:
- Establishment of a free trade zone between China and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
- Development of transport corridors connecting China and Europe.
- Cooperation in energy, industry, technology, and innovation.
These initiatives have already resulted in several implemented projects:
- Construction of transport corridors and provision of cheap logistics to Europe for Chinese goods.
- Construction of the Power of Siberia oil and gas pipelines to China (which is currently helping Russia circumvent sanctions).
- Participation in the development of space technologies and projects.
- Cooperation in the military-industrial complex.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, there are over 100 Chinese factories in Russia. These are mainly automotive plants, electronics, and component manufacturing plants.
Imagine the potential success and influence of such a union
Imagine the potential success and influence of such a union: the largest territory in the world, the largest reserves of critical materials, the largest industrial production, the largest mineral reserves, including energy (uranium, oil, gas), the largest army, dominance on two continents (at least two, we should mention China's growing role in Africa).
But Germany was also a target (and an active and vital member) of this alliance and benefited from it. Back in 2006, Merkel signed several strategic documents with China. In 2006, at the Sino-German Forum for Economic and Technological Cooperation, bilateral cooperation between China and Germany in the energy sector grew into a strategic partnership. In 2014, the Chinese Foreign Minister spoke directly about the strategic partnership between Germany and China at a briefing. Over the past ten years, China has been one of the largest markets for the German chemical, automotive, and mechanical engineering industries.
- In July 2022, Germany's BASF announced the final approval of a plan to build a vast €10 billion plant in southern China.
- Aldi, the German discount retailer, plans to open hundreds of new stores in China.
- Auto parts supplier Hella is doubling the capacity of its Shanghai plant, and Siemens will announce a significant expansion of its digital industries division in China.
- Volkswagen sells 20% of its cars in China, and 13% of Siemens' and 15% of BASF's revenues come from China.
This is just the tip of the iceberg.
In 2021, China became Germany's largest trading partner for the sixth year in a row, with 9.5% of all exported goods sold to it that year. Angela Merkel has been to China 12 times in her 16 years in office, often accompanied by colossal business delegations. In turn, China is increasing its investment in Germany. Now, imagine the power of a China-Germany-Russia alliance. Its military, financial, technological, and territorial power would put an end to Anglo-Saxon dominance in the world!
The potential GDP of such a union would be $33 trillion versus $27 trillion in the United States. The population is 2 billion people versus 340 million in the United States. Only their military budgets are comparable. Not only the pure dollar amount is essential here, but also the ability to mass-produce a considerable number of different types of weapons. And if we add access to technology and control of a significant portion of critical materials, then such an alliance is clearly ahead on the "world chessboard," to quote Zbigniew Brzezinski.
So Putin made a big mistake by attacking Ukraine. As a result, he has multiplied the prospects of this union by zero. Here, we can only applaud the American game.
Below are a few points that explain this:
As you have already realized, the emergence of such a Greater Eurasian Partnership would critically undermine the existence of the United States.
- First, it would be a blow to the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Fewer and fewer settlements and central bank reserves would remain in dollars.
The dollar would devalue, and the resulting loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries would destroy the U.S. financial system.
- Secondly, the role and influence of the United States in Europe and Eurasia, in general, would begin to decline sharply. At the same time, exports and production volumes would fall, leading to an economic crisis in the United States.
- Third, Africa and the Middle East would be lost forever for the United States.
- Fourth, America would face the risk of separation of rich states that would refuse to "feed" poorer ones. This would mean the end of the United States as an integral state.
- The issue of Taiwan's absorption by China would be a simple legal step, and at the same time, China would gain technical advantages over the United States in semiconductors.
Thus, such a step as the successful functioning of the EPP posed a critical threat to the existence of the United States!
- In 2014, when Russia began its annexation of Crimea, we could have prevented this. Talk to the military, and they will explain. Ukraine had the resources and capabilities to defend Crimea. But acting President Turchynov blocked this. Do you remember? As the media wrote at the time, this decision was justified by "tough recommendations" from the United States (Google it). For the US, it was a successful bait (Crimea), which required the international community, including Germany, to impose sanctions on Russia and start distancing itself from it. Do you remember how painful it was for Germany when it tried to supply Siemens turbines to Crimea?
The introduction of sanctions in 2014 did not critically affect Russia. It continued to rearm its military, which was supposed to end in 2020. From 2021, the Russian army was to be considered fully rearmed, in line with the spirit of the times, and ready for military conflicts.
According to some scenarios, Russia was supposed to conduct a "small victorious war" in Europe in 2020-2021, capturing one or more Baltic states in 24 hours, which would, in their opinion, paralyze NATO. Article 5 of the charter, they believed, would not apply to NATO within the first week or two because of the bureaucracy, and after that, it would be pointless. Everything would be presented according to the Crimean-Donetsk scenario:
- Russian-speaking activists asking Russia to send troops,
- Creation of “people's republics.”
- The deep concern of Western leaders.
Further in the scenario, the complete collapse of NATO and the global collective security system. Even further – there would be a chain of "victorious wars" in Europe and Asia and the completion of the "Great Eurasian Partnership."
But there was one problem. China will be ready for a major war only by 2027, which is the timeframe they have set for the complete rearmament of their army.
In general, Russia did not realize its plans in Europe, and it had several countries in its sights that used to be part of the USSR, which Putin dreamed of reuniting. The most interesting of these are Ukraine and Kazakhstan. But in Kazakhstan, China has already become its largest trading partner, accounting for 25% of its trade. Therefore, after gaining complete control over Belarus, Ukraine became the focus of the under-empire.
According to various estimates, from 2014 to 2022, Russia spent more than $5 billion on developing its agent network in Ukraine. Not only did it spend, it "mastered" it. Putin was counting on a quick and successful military campaign in Ukraine. He had his TV channels controlled by his godfather, many agents in the SBU, the Ministry of Defense, and other agencies, and "titushky" on the payroll. He was preparing for a "walk" on the red carpet. This is confirmed by the ammunition of some of the trained contingent.
The Americans were tracking this in detail and, unlike Putin, had a different plan. The invasion of Ukraine (in any scenario) has already opened up new opportunities for the United States.
- First, it is an influential mobilizing factor for NATO.
- Secondly, it is an excellent opportunity to strangle Russia more tightly with economic sanctions.
- Third, the occupation of Ukraine would draw additional resources from Russia, weakening it in the long run.
- Fourthly, it would reset the American arms market with multibillion-dollar contracts.
The West was not interested in Russia's occupation of Ukraine. The United States was and remains interested in utilizing Russia's military potential in Ukraine and Ukrainians and reducing the future military potential of the Russia-China alliance.
Why do they need it?
Do you remember 2027, the year of completion of China's rearmament? This is the year that military analysts call the year of the potential outbreak of a major war between the United States and China, which will quickly turn into World War III. Russia is China's natural ally in this great war. It is a country with a powerful military-industrial complex, up-to-date military technologies, and a large population that can be mobilized against the "evil bad west."
So there you have it.
Belief in the effective work of the agent network for the $5 billion spent, belief in the destroyed Ukrainian army (by Russian agents), belief in the absence of resistance, belief in the support of pro-Russian Ukrainians, belief that the Ukrainian president would be afraid – they did their job. Putin's positive expectations were reinforced by the Pentagon's February statement that Ukraine would not last more than 72 hours, according to their calculations.
This is where logic and knowledge need to be applied. Russia had prepared a 200,000-strong contingent to take over Kyiv, a city of 3 million people. The capital of a country in which more than 400 thousand people had combat experience, where the security agencies had an army of more than 700 thousand people. A country with about 1 million legal weapons in the hands of its citizens. For comparison, the Russian military could not take a small Grozny with a population of 400 thousand people within two months. Where did the confidence in taking Kyiv in 72 hours come from?
Three weeks before the invasion, Putin received Xi Jinping's blessing by attending the Beijing Olympics, where they both criticized US hegemony. However, the Russian president caught a bait-and-switch with his offensive. He took the bait of the "illusion of an easy victory," and the Russian army suffered the heaviest losses in its history. Little Ukraine exhausted most of Russia's military potential. The 2nd World Army has been retreating from the 21st World Army for 1.5 years. In terms of the number of sanctions, Russia has outstripped all the countries of the world combined, with more than 14,000 sanctions. Russia has become a pariah, and Germany already supplies Ukraine with tanks and weapons. Although, let's be honest, they are extremely reluctant to do so. Remember the speed of the decision on the Leopards.
And what about China?
In preparing for the upcoming war over Taiwan, they have practically lost an ally in Russia. The United States, on the other hand, gained invaluable experience by studying modern tactical solutions in Ukraine.
The Western world stepped up the transfer of microprocessor production from Asia to Europe and America. Trade with China has been declining for the second year in a row, and China is on the verge of a severe economic crisis, having ended an era of 40 years of growth.
Why? Because they decided to destroy the hegemony of the US "global policeman" and build their "new world"...
The most interesting thing is that it was Ukraine and Ukrainians who changed the course of world history. No predictions about the 72 hours came true, as the Ukrainian people demonstrated their unique ability to mobilize in the face of a common threat. Today, Ukraine is receiving unprecedented amounts of assistance from Western countries. The number of visits to Kyiv by the world's top leaders over the past 1.5 years exceeds the entire previous 30-year history of Ukraine.
The Anglo-Saxons have already decided that Ukraine will win, and implementing this plan is a matter of time, resources, and actions by the Ukrainian government. Many signs are pointing to this. Ukraine is firmly on the map of American and British interests, and they will not give up their interest, as history proves. Ukraine tomorrow is not just a buffer zone between Russia and Europe.
Ukraine is a "promising startup" with unique mineral resources, fertile land, well-trained people, and a very low starting point. This will provide enormous earnings for investors who invest in Ukraine after the war.
In essence, Ukraine will have to learn from the experience of South Korea, which, under the US umbrella, has turned from a poor agricultural country into a prosperous technological power. It has overcome a lot of corruption scandals and moved from the 3rd world to the 1st.
Russia will forever be a pariah and will be split into several territories. Some of the regions will be controlled from Kyiv. China will likely abandon the idea of a military takeover of Taiwan in the coming decades and will go through a severe crisis with a change of government. The United States will retain its role as a "global policeman," and the British will become one of the largest investors in the Ukrainian economy and will try to regain their former influence in Europe.
You know that "the darkest hour of the day is before dawn"?